Hi everyone,
Well…it’s been an interesting last few months. Leaving the Alvery Bartlett Group after almost 12 years was one of the most anxiety riddled decisions of my life. But, like those other like changing moments (marriage, children), my anxiety didn’t come from a place of fear, but more from the uncertainty of moving into uncharted waters. One of the things that has become clear is that Brad and I have some of the best and most supportive clients on the planet. So before I go further….THANK YOU.
For those of you that don’t know, we started the Loose Change blog almost a year ago as a way to communicate a bit more with clients, give everyone an opportunity to learn more about the investing world, establish an online presence, and have a written record of all the times we are wrong (this was Brad’s idea…just kidding). If you want ever want to look back at previous articles and viewpoints on the market, you can see everything at www.theloosechange.com.
I’m sorry to report that I still can’t predict the future, but we can prepare for multiple possible futures. In our updates of June and April, we mentioned the sideways action in the equity markets and that no conclusions should be drawn until the S&P rises above 2800 or below 2553. I’m happy to report that the S&P made an intra-day all-time high today above 2873. While we don’t take victory laps, we do take solace in the fact that the uptrend remains intact. That means until the markets tell us otherwise, US stocks will remain a large portion of a diversified portfolio. Emerging and Developed foreign markets have taken the brunt of the trade war/tariff rhetoric along with commodities, but like all sector rotations, low prices offer an opportunity for rebalancing at better entry points. Forgoing some upside capture with US stocks, while maintaining a well-diversified, broadly balanced portfolio, is a cost we are gladly willing to pay to protect the wealth you’ve taken your entire life to build. While underperforming the hottest index of the day/month/quarter/year (US TECHNOLOGY) seems like a good enough reason to reposition a portfolio, it’s not. Systematic rebalancing helps take that emotional piece out of your hands to make the trades we as humans struggle with.
As always, if you ever need anything, Brad and I are around.
– Adam
Hitting the Links
Here’s How It Works – Josh Brown of Ritholz Wealth Management talks about the traditional relationship between client and advisor and how that’s changing (for the better).
What Is Your Value Proposition -Given that we are starting some new together, I thought I would send out my favorite piece on what you should expect to receive from a trusted advisor.
Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich – “For decades people used Coke, Gillette, and American Express as examples of companies whose success was so solidified – whose moats were so deep and protected – that you could foresee their dominance indefinitely. But now all three are under attack.” This article talks about why I am cautious of companies which were loved 30 years ago and are now being disrupted by technology.
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
How Old is this Bull Market? – Reminder we are in a three year-old bull market, not a 9-year old one.
Global Consumption – Chart of Global Consumption over the past three decades. A big fundamental reason why global companies may be a growth driver for your portfolios in the future (with some bumps along the way).
Potent Quotables
“Amateurs have a goal, professionals have a process.” – Shane Parrish, Farnam Street
“Imagine you could play poker with no ante or blinds allowing you as much time as needed to wait for aces or kings; how could you lose over time? That’s precisely what you are offered in the stock market. The only potential flaw in that proposition is your own lack of discipline.” – Mark Minervini
